EB-5 Visa Bulletin for November 2026: What the Numbers Forecast

For November 2026, EB-5 dates remain “current” for most applicants, but demand for visa numbers already exceeds annual limits — so applicants from India and China should plan for a visa backlog, while everyone else can lower their waiting risk through the unreserved processing option.

In short

• Dates for all three EB-5 reserved categories are currently “current” — concurrent filing of the green card form with an I-526E petition is available.
• This status holds on carryover of unused numbers — once that gets used up to the limit, the carryover stops and wait times grow.
• Applicants from India and China should already plan for a visa backlog — the “18 months to 2 years” timeline isn’t realistic for them right now.
• Opting in between reserved and unreserved categories only works through the consulate (NVC); USCIS has no such mechanism for adjustment of status.
• The demand math runs on an assumption of 1.5 applicants per I-526 petition — if the real figure is higher, the shortage of numbers will be bigger than forecast.

Consular Processing for EB-5: How It Works

Consular processing is one of two ways to get a green card through EB-5 after a petition is approved. It’s handled by the U.S. Department of State, not by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.

The process works like this: the applicant applies at a U.S. consulate abroad, gets assigned an interview date, and the consulate issues the visa based on that interview. This is the alternative to adjustment of status inside the United States — the path for people filing from outside the country.

Why Immigrant Visa Issuance Has Dropped

Visa issuance has dropped sharply, and this isn’t limited to a handful of countries — the slowdown has hit issuance broadly, not just in the 75 countries referenced in this context. The U.S. Consulate in Guangzhou has effectively suspended interviews, and that’s one concrete example of how fewer visas are being issued in practice.

There’s a court ruling that explicitly bars taking an applicant’s national origin into account under the public charge test. But in practice the problem runs wider than that ruling: not enough immigrant visa interview slots are being scheduled abroad — and that’s a systemic issue, not an isolated one.

This isn’t unique to EB-5: the slowdown has hit every immigrant visa category. According to an article by David Bier referenced in this context, it’s legal immigration specifically that has declined — more than illegal immigration. In other words, the drop in visa issuance is the general backdrop against which the EB-5 visa bulletin specifically needs to be read.

EB-5 Visa Number Carryover Under RAIA: What It Is and How It Works

EB-5 operates under RAIA carryover provisions: if a reserved visa number allocated in the current fiscal year goes unused, it doesn’t disappear. It can still go to a reserved-category investor in the following fiscal year — meaning the category gets one more year to find its applicant.

If the number still goes unused the following year, it then moves into the unreserved category and becomes available to investors outside the reserved set-asides.

How many reserved numbers have actually shifted into the unreserved category this fiscal year is unknown — there’s no data on that figure yet.

How Many Visa Numbers One I-526 Petition Requires

In calculating demand for visa numbers, analysts work with an assumption: roughly 1.5 applicants or visa numbers per approved I-526 petition. This isn’t a measured fact but a working estimate — the real figure could be closer to two or even higher.

That difference matters a lot for the forecast. If a petition ends up requiring two numbers on average instead of 1.5, total demand for visa numbers rises proportionally, while the numbers available under the annual caps don’t increase at all.

Applicant demand already substantially exceeds the number of visas available under the annual caps. Adding to the squeeze on this fiscal year’s unreserved numbers is the 2026 adjustment-of-status approval data, which hasn’t been published yet.

The upshot: expect waiting times to stretch out once the government starts approving petitions at a volume sufficient to fully use up the annual caps. That hasn’t happened yet, and it’s what has kept the queue growth on hold so far.

The upshot: expect waiting times to stretch out once the government starts approving petitions at a volume sufficient to fully use up the annual caps.

EB-5 Visa Bulletin for November 2026: Where the Dates Stand Now

Right now, dates for all three EB-5 reserved categories remain “current” — no queue. For applicants already in the United States, this means concurrent filing is available: filing the green card application together with Form I-526E, without waiting for a separate priority date.

That situation holds thanks to carryover of unused numbers from the previous fiscal year — a mechanism that’s currently inflating the annual caps across all three reserved categories. But carryover isn’t permanent: once number usage gets close to the ceiling, the carryover stops and the annual caps themselves shrink. For applicants, that will mean longer waits than what they’re seeing right now.

Data on I-485 applications pending in the visa set-aside categories (rural and high unemployment) by country of birth, as of October 5, already shows substantial accumulated demand in both categories. A separate chart showing a high annual cap for 2027 creates the impression that the rural queue could clear relatively fast — but that estimate doesn’t account for the carryover ending, after which wait times will grow.

India, China, and Rest of World: Why the Queue Differs

Applicants from India and China filing an EB-5 petition today should plan for a visa backlog — this applies specifically to those two countries, not to applicants in general. Expectations like “I got my conditional green card in 18 months or 2 years,” which show up in applicant discussions, aren’t realistic for people filing now: that timeline doesn’t reflect the current queue situation for these two countries.

The difference comes down to how per-country limits are calculated. The number of rest-of-world applicants — meaning every country other than India and China — is presumably lower and fits within their per-country limits, so the need to impose a final action date on the reserved categories comes up less often for them.

Unreserved processing provides an extra cushion: rest-of-world applicants can opt for it, and its annual cap is, by analysts’ estimates, relatively high — roughly more than 6,000 numbers a year. That’s a real advantage specifically for rest-of-world applicants: it should let both the reserved and unreserved categories stay “current” for an extended period.

India, China, and Rest of World: Different EB-5 Visa Number Conditions

Factor	India and China	Rest of World
Current queue situation	Visa backlog	Categories still “current”
Per-country limit	Applicant numbers exceed the limit	Applicant numbers fit within the limit
Final action date	Imposed more often	Imposed less often
Access to unreserved processing	Not addressed in the material	Yes, with a cap of roughly more than 6,000 numbers a year

Based on data as of October 5 referenced in the article.

Opting In Between Reserved and Unreserved Categories: How the Choice Works

Opt-in is a procedure that lets an applicant with an approved I-526E petition in a reserved category choose which category their case gets processed under going forward: the original reserved category or the unreserved one. But in practice, that choice isn’t equally available to everyone.

The category-selection mechanism that exists today was created only by the Department of State — it applies at the consular processing stage. Once a case is approved and transferred to the National Visa Center (NVC), the applicant can directly request which category — reserved or unreserved — they want their processing to continue under.

USCIS has no equivalent mechanism for adjustment of status. After I-526 approval, there’s no way to contact the agency and request a preferred category, and the default rule applies instead: regardless of the applicant’s country of birth, a reserved-category number gets used.

A telling example: a Brazilian EB-5 investor on F-1 status gets adjustment of status approved. By default, they’ll be assigned a number from the rural or high unemployment category — even if an unreserved number is available at that exact moment. According to the speakers cited here, that outcome runs against what Congress intended when it created these visa categories: if the goal is to use visa numbers as efficiently as possible and keep the visa bulletin “current” for as long as possible, it would make more sense for rest-of-world applicants to draw on unreserved numbers.

According to the speakers cited here, that outcome runs against what Congress intended when it created these visa categories

There’s also no mechanism at USCIS for switching from the default category — or from a category chosen via opt-in — to the unreserved category, either now or if final action dates get introduced later. The speakers are hoping USCIS will add that option soon: it would let the numbers be used more efficiently, without forcing applicants to go back abroad just to access consular processing.

When to Expect a Final Action Date for EB-5

Whether EB-5 will get a final action date, and when, is unknown — and so is how long people filing a petition today will actually have to wait. There’s no precise forecast available: too many unknowns are feeding into the calculation at once — the volume of carryover, the actual conversion rate of petitions into visa numbers, the share of applicants from India and China, and how USCIS handles concurrent filing. It’s this pile-up of uncertainty that makes the job of immigration attorneys so hard right now: giving a client a precise answer on timing is genuinely difficult in this situation.

That said, the data itself points toward final action dates getting closer — ignoring that trend would be unwise. The trend shows up in the numbers, even if the exact date remains unknown.

That said, the data itself points toward final action dates getting closer — ignoring that trend would be unwise.

Frequently asked questions

Can I file for EB-5 at the same time as relocating to the US, if I’m already in the country?

Yes, if the reserved category dates stay “current” as they are now: an applicant already in the United States can use concurrent filing — submitting the green card form together with the I-526E petition, without waiting for a separate priority date.

What happens to a rest-of-world investor, say from Brazil, if they don’t opt in?

If an investor doesn’t use the opt-in and their case stays on adjustment of status with USCIS, the default rule applies: they’ll be assigned a reserved-category number (rural or high unemployment), even if an unreserved number is available at that moment.

Can I refile an I-526E petition to get into the unreserved category if I missed the chance to opt in?

There’s no such mechanism: switching from the default category — or from a category chosen via opt-in — to the unreserved category through USCIS isn’t currently possible, either now or if final action dates are introduced later.

How do I know I’m eligible for opt-in if I’m abroad?

Opt-in is available at the consular processing stage: once a case with an approved I-526E is transferred to the National Visa Center (NVC), the applicant can directly request which category — reserved or unreserved — their processing should continue under.

Do I need to go abroad to opt in if I’m already filing for adjustment of status in the US?

Right now, formally yes: the opt-in mechanism exists only at the Department of State, at the consular processing stage, while USCIS has no equivalent choice for adjustment of status. According to the speakers cited in this material, that’s out of step with what Congress intended and limits applicants by forcing them toward consular processing just to pick a category.

What happens to the rural and high unemployment queues if carryover ends?

A high annual cap for 2027 in the rural category creates the impression that the queue could clear quickly, but that estimate doesn’t account for carryover ending: once the number carryover stops, the annual caps themselves shrink, and applicant wait times grow.

Why might the estimate of 1.5 visa numbers per I-526 petition be off?

It’s not a measured fact but a working assumption used by analysts. If the real figure turns out closer to two numbers per petition, total demand for visa numbers will rise proportionally, while the number of visas available under the annual caps won’t increase.